Bio
I am a PhD candidate in economics at UCL and
cemmap.
I work in empirical industrial organisation and applied microeconomics.
I am on the job market during the 2026-27 academic year.
Email: fortenospamgecondeleteme [﹒] gmailtrap.com
Address: Department of Economics, University College London, 30 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AX
Curriculum Vitae
GitHub
Job Market Paper
An Empirical Model of Online Ratings Supply and Demand
Abstract (click to expand): -
Working Papers
with João Granja (UCL)
Submitted
Abstract (click to expand): We study the estimation of dynamic games with continuous control variables, such as investments in R&D, quality, and capacity. We use the recursive characterization of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to develop estimators that exploit the structure of optimal policies. In particular, we derive a pseudo maximum likelihood estimator for models with shocks to firms' marginal costs of investment. We evaluate the performance of these estimators in two Monte Carlo exercises, including a version of the Hashmi and van Biesebroeck (2016) model of innovation in the automobile industry extended to allow for entry and exit. We find that estimators based on recursive equilibrium conditions perform well and outperform the inequality estimator of Bajari, Benkard, and Levin (2007).
Submitted
Abstract (click to expand): This article evaluates the welfare effects of the temporary excise cut on petrol and diesel introduced by the Italian government in March 2026 in response to the oil-price shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We estimate pass-through from a difference-in-differences along the Italy-France border using daily station-level prices. We find 83% of the petrol cut and 74% of the diesel cut reached consumers at the pump. Plugging the pass-through estimates into a sufficient-statistics framework, we find a net welfare gain of EUR 107 million against a fiscal cost of EUR 841 million. Though the fiscal cost is broadly in line with a window-rescaled version of the official parliamentary scoring, imperfect pass-through routed a substantial share of the private welfare gain to refiners and retailers — 15% on petrol and 28% on diesel — at odds with the consumer-price-relief intent signalled by the decree's own anti-speculation provisions. The policy also delivered a relatively low marginal value of public funds of 1.13.
Work in Progress
Semiparametric Estimation of Dynamic Continuous Choice Problems
with João Granja (UCL)
Abstract (click to expand): -
Pre-PhD Publications
with Francesco Campo (Padua), Jonathan Portes (KCL)
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 24(2), 537–564, 2024
Abstract (click to expand): The UK saw a sharp rise in work-related migration, particularly from the EU, in the 2000s and 2010s, with profound impacts on the labour market. We investigate the relationship between migration and productivity in Great Britain between 2002 and 2018, using an instrumental variable approach which follows the commonly used shift-share methodology. Our results, which are robust to a variety of tests, suggest that immigration has a positive and significant impact (in both the statistical sense and more broadly) on productivity, as measured by GVA per job at the Travel-to-Work-Area level. We indeed find that a 1 p.p. increase in the share of migrants is associated with a 0.84% increase in productivity in 2SLS estimates. We discuss the implications for post-Brexit immigration policy.
PDF
with Jonathan Portes (KCL)
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 33(S1), 2017
Abstract (click to expand): We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature. We find that Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector.
Other
Wikipedia-direct dataset of national voting-intention polls for 32 European
countries (EU-27 plus the UK, Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland). Roughly 33k
polls and 296k party-poll observations from 2002 onward, with party-name
harmonization via Party Facts IDs. The browser front-end fetches and parses
Wikipedia HTML client-side; no backend.
live site ·
repo
Searchable, filterable cross-edition database of Italian spese fiscali (tax
expenditures). Covers Tavola 1 of every Rapporto annuale sulle spese fiscali
from RSF 2016 through RSF 2024 — roughly five thousand spese fiscali erariali
across nine editions, with a stable cross-edition ID so the same measure can be
tracked over time. Each row carries identifying number, governing norm with
Normattiva deep-link, description, tax and fiscal category, nature, sunset date,
three-year fiscal impact, beneficiaries, source-PDF page link, and government
attributions (introducing executive and executive at most recent amendment).
live site ·
repo
fortenospamgecondeleteme [﹒] gmailtrap.com
